Ukraine, US and Russia have responded positively to the visit, first by an Indian PM since Ukraine attained independence after the breakup of the USSR or Soviet Union in 1991
Conditions ripe for India to play a greater role in facilitating negotiations to bring peace to the war-torn nation, whether as a mediator or as a communication bridge
The task is akin to climbing a treacherous cliff, but if Modi succeeds, it could be Nobel Peace moment for him
There are no two opinions that the popularity of the prime minister of the most populous nation in the world, Narendra Modi, once hailed as a new phenomenon, and acknowledged as the most popular contemporary leader by the world, but berated as arrogance personified by the Opposition, is on the wane, at least within the country.
His party Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) also suddenly does not look as intimidating and invincible in Indian politics as till a few years back, because of the crushing reverses it received at the hands of the electorate in the recently concluded national general elections.
Though the results, announced in July, have ensured that the party’s retains its status as the single largest party by a mile, but these have also deprived it of the comfort of a majority on its own in the lower House of Parliament, which had given it brute power in the last two terms the party has been at the helm.
Even with its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partners, the BJP-led government is left with an uncomfortably thin majority, curtailing its earlier freedom to act decisively and at will.
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But despite the reverses in the 2024 elections, which for the first time witnessed no X factor working for Modi unlike in the 2014 and 2019 elections, and losing absolute power, the man is putting up a brave front and appears to remain focused on achieving the ambitious national and international goals he has set for the country till 2047, which will mark 100 years of India’s independence.
On top of the list of these goals are the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (self-reliant India) push both in cutting edge defence and other technologies; and achieving the status of the world’s third largest economy in the next few years and an Advanced country by 2047.
He realises that for the country to achieve these seemingly impossible targets, India needs to reposition itself as one of the geopolitically most strategic and trusted global partners in terms of world peace and security, manufacturing and trade. At this juncture, India also needs an enabling world environment for unhindered flow of investment and technology and maintaining robust supply chains.
Unfortunately, the current volatility in the global security environment, especially wars involving India’s closest defence suppliers – Russia and Israel – are severely impacting the global supply chains of critical commodities like food, fertilisers and crude oil, etc. and with it, economies the world over.
Chaotic world bad news for India’s growth story
While the chaotic situation is bad news for India itself, but as a nation, which aspires to become the voice of the global south, it also needs to be seen to be using its global influence to take initiatives which safeguard the larger national interests of its partners in this informal block.
Presently, the biggest concern before the government is that due to disruption or slowdown in supplies of contracted critical defence equipment and spares from Russia and elsewhere, the defence preparedness of the country is being severely compromised, especially when its powerful northern neighbour is unrelenting in its aggressive posture on the tense border.
Dependence on Ukraine
After the collapse of the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), also called Soviet Union, and Ukraine reasserting itself as an independent republic in 1991, India has been dependent on the now war-torn country for supply of critical gas turbine engines and spares for its large fleet of Soviet/Russian naval warships and AN-32 transport aircraft.
It is therefore imperative that India maintain close defence and economic ties with Ukraine despite the soured ties over India seemingly siding with Russia by steadfastly declining to name its close ally as the aggressor in the war with Ukraine.
The two countries in fact are also known to be in talks to set up joint aircraft and gas turbine engine manufacturing facilities in India, considering that many of these facilities in Ukraine have been either badly damaged or destroyed by Russia in the ongoing war.
So, Modi’s 10-hour travel by a special train to Kiev for a brief single day visit from Poland, where he undertook a two-day visit, served a dual purpose.
Twin agendas
In extending an invitation to Modi to visit his country, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was keen on the Indian leader, and through him the global south, to get a first-hand experience of the war-torn country and better appreciate its perspective on the war. Taking forward the bilateral ties, including defence cooperation, was the other important agenda.
Modi’s visit to Ukraine, coming immediately after his discussions with the President and Prime Minister of Poland, Ukraine’s closest ally in the war, and through which most of the NATO and non-NATO allies’ military and redevelopment assistance has been routed to Ukraine, and weeks after his visit to Russia and Austria, was being followed with much anticipation by the world keen on seeing an early end to the war.
All the talk of Modi’s visit to Ukraine being an exercise at firefighting after facing flak from US and its allies over his Putin-hugging act apart, Modi apparently undertook the visit after a broad understanding with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Biden Administration.
Timing of visit
The timing of the visit assumed utmost importance from the fact that the bitterly fought presidential elections in the US are just nine weeks away.
After pumping in billions of dollars in military and other assistance, and still faltering, in the two-and-a-half years running Ukraine war, which is seen as US led NATO and its other allies’ proxy war against Russia, the superpower has got deeply embroiled in another no-gains battle in support of its close ally Israel in the Middle East.
Both war fronts are threatening to spin out of control showing the present US administration in poor light, which could prove decisive in the upcoming elections.
In an apparent display of frustration over the failures, US is accelerating military and other assistance to its allies on both fronts, pushing them to the limits in a desperate attempt to turn the tide.
Ukraine has opened a near suicidal new front in the war by making a daring incursion into the Kursk Oblast (or region) of the Russian Federation and suffering monumental losses, while at the same time allowing attacking Russia forces to push faster and deeper into Eastern Ukraine, according to international military experts.
As Zelenskyy’s position within the country becomes increasingly untenable for not being able to defend the country against its mighty neighbour despite massive assistance pouring in from its Western allies, there is also a distinct possibility of US considering a regime change in Kiev.
But it’s not that only the Western allies are feeling the pinch of the unending war. Russian Federation’s war effort is also under tremendous strain, and it is being forced to increasingly seek military assistance from its allies Iran, China and South Korea. Adding to this, there is a growing international pressure to end the war because of its far-reaching implications for global economy, peace and security.
So, the appetite for war is on the wane all around.
Uphill task
It is in this context that Modi’s initiative could find favour globally. But with both warring sides sticking to their respective avowed stands – Ukraine and its allies seeking unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces from territories captured by them during the war, and Russia insisting on recognition of the territorial status quo – convincing them for give and take to resolve the deadlock at this juncture looks improbable.
Russia considers this an existential war, maintaining that it has been thrust on it by the 75-year-old US led military alliance NATO’s (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) continuing aggressive expansion on its European borders.
Russia’s stand has been that it cannot allow Ukraine, with which it shares a very long border, to be ensnared into the NATO fold and thus jeopardise its security, though, after the war began in February 2022, two other countries in the region Finland and Sweden, which had so far maintained military neutrality, have joined the alliance in April 2023 and March 2024 respectively, further infuriating Russia.
With Sweden joining the military alliance as its 32nd member nation, the combined land borders of NATO member countries with Russia have more than doubled from 1200+ kms to 2500+ kms.
The other NATO countries which share a land border with Russia are Norway, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Lithuania.
Can Modi play honest role
Only display of strong political will from both sides to end the war can make things move in a positive direction. For that, the warring parties will have to be first goaded to sit across the table. Modi, with the expectations of the global south behind him, can play a role in this if he can convince them that he can be trusted to maintain neutrality in facilitating sincere and practical engagement between all stakeholders leading to balanced talks.
During his visit, Modi played his cards well, starting with trying to apply a healing balm on the wounds inflicted on Ukraine by the war, especially by paying homage during his visit to the Ukraine National Museum to the hundreds of children who lost their lives.
The signals coming out of Kiev are of hope. Modi has suggested that Zelenskyy talk directly to Putin to help resolve the issues of conflict. The Ukrainian President, though the key to his decision-making lies with the US, has at least agreed to include Russia in the next global peace summit.
Zelenskyy has also said he would support India hosting a second peace summit, albeit conditional to India signing the communique adopted at the end of the first summit held in Switzerland and attended by 101 countries and international institutions, which is unlikely to happen.
Modi had not attended the summit and sent a diplomatic delegation instead, but India had not signed on the communique that endorsed the “principles of sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine.”
Kyiv appears keen to find a host from among the leading countries in the global south to garner larger international support for his 10-point peace plan (only three of which were incorporated in the joint communique in Switzerland), and his preference appears to be India with its close ties with both Moscow and Washington.
Conversations with Biden, Putin
Within days of concluding his visit to Ukraine (on Aug 23), Modi spoke separately to both US President Joe Biden (on Aug 26) and Russian President Vladimir Putin (the next day) apparently to share his perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war, especially in the light of his visit, and his views on bringing the warring sides to the negotiating table.
With both world leaders, Modi reiterated India’s firm commitment to support an early, abiding and peaceful resolution of the conflict.
Positive reaction to propel process forward
Given that both USA and Russia have reacted positively to Modi’s visit is indication enough of this process being taken forward at global summit meetings and possible future peace negotiations.
In a statement the White House said that US President Joe Biden, during his telephonic conversation with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, commended the latter’s “historic visits” to Poland and Ukraine, the first by an Indian Prime Minister in decades, as well as his message of peace and ongoing humanitarian support for Ukraine, including its energy sector.” The two leaders discussed PM Modi’s trip to two European nations and the upcoming United Nations General Assembly meetings in September.
However, the assertion in the statement that PM Modi and President Biden affirmed their continued support for a “peaceful resolution” of the conflict “in accordance with international law, on the basis of the UN Charter,” was quite stark.
On the other hand, in a first reaction to Modi’s visit, a spokesperson of the Russian foreign ministry said that “the visit was an attempt to make a feasible contribution to the political and diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian crisis, along with the efforts of other countries (apparently alluding to China) that are putting forward an unbiased balanced line.
“We would like to remind you that the Russian side has never ruled out achieving the goals of a special military operation by political and diplomatic methods. We are ready to continue the dialogue with our Indian friends on the Ukrainian issue. In this matter, we proceed from the fact that they are well acquainted with the Russian position, which has been repeatedly and in detail communicated to New Delhi during bilateral contacts at the highest and high levels,” the spokesperson added.
In a latest article on the key takeaways from Modi’s Ukraine visit published on its website https://www.usip.org/, the United States Institute Of Peace (USIP) has commented that “Although it is far too early to suggest that India is willing or able to mediate a Russia-Ukraine dialogue, Modi’s calls to Putin and President Joe Biden immediately after his Ukraine trip were a constructive signal that the door is open for more, including in September at the United Nations Summit of the Future in New York and in October at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia.
Modi has confirmed his participation in both summit meetings.
In his outreach, the Indian prime minister may be seeking to achieve the impossible, but if he were to succeed in pulling it off, he could be eyeing a Nobel Peace moment and a resurgence in his popularity.
